Book Discussion: “The Russian Military Intervention in Syria”

On July 15, 2024, IFI hosted the first in a series of book discussions, starting with Ohannes Geukjian’s – Associate Professor of Comparative Politics and Conflict Resolution at the American University of Beirut – book “The Russian Military Intervention in Syria”(McGill-Queen's University Press, 2022). The event was moderated by IFI Director Joseph Bahout, with discussants Hilal Khashan, AUB Professor of Political Science, and Yeghia Tashjian, IFI’s International Affairs Cluster Coordinator.

The discussion delved into the intricate dynamics of the Russian military presence in Syria. Geukjian emphasized that “Syria is coming back to the surface,” reflecting on Russia’s strategic decision to announce its intervention in 2013, rather than 2011 when the conflict began. The panel explored the triggers behind this timing, including Russia’s policy strategies, NATO enlargement, the implications of the Arab Spring, particularly the loss of Libya as an ally, and the war in Ukraine. The discussion proceeded to cover the future expectations from the upcoming U.S. administration’s foreign policies, the EU’s role, and the impact on U.S.-Russian relations across different presidencies (Obama, Trump, and Biden). Speakers also addressed the involvement of non-state actors, terrorist groups, and Russia’s explicit use of hard power over diplomacy, highlighting Putin’s stance against regime change by force, as seen in the annexation of Crimea. Geukjian noted that “status inconsistency leads to conflict,” referring to the diminished respect for Russia post-Soviet Union.
 
Meanwhile, Khashan commented on Russia's strategic positioning and historical context. He highlighted Russia's demand for higher status, aiming to reassert itself as a major power despite its weak economy, describing Russia as a "politically overachieving country." Khashan provided historical context dating back to Peter the Great, emphasizing Russia's enduring quest for prestige. He discussed the bipolarity of the Soviet era and Gorbachev's "New Political Thinking" policy, which aimed to shift from conflict to solidarity. The term "near abroad" was used to describe countries formerly part of the Soviet Union, now impacted by NATO's eastward expansion. Khashan also addressed the Arab stances on the Syrian conflict, particularly those of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. He concluded by contrasting Russia's success in Syria with the more complex situation in Ukraine, noting that prevailing in Ukraine would significantly impact NATO.
 
Finally, Yeghia Tashjian provided a detailed analysis of Russia's strategic alliances and economic interests in the Middle East post-Ukraine war. He highlighted how Russia has relied on junior powers like Iran and Turkey, emphasizing the critical importance of controlling economic routes in the region to secure access to the Eastern Mediterranean. Tashjian discussed Turkey's involvement in the Syrian conflict, particularly its interactions with Kurdish forces and the complex relationship between the Kurds and the Assad regime. He also talked about the diplomatic maneuvering among Iran, Turkey, and Russia, each striving to advance its own interests within the Syrian conflict.