Webinar: "Gaza, One Year After: Regional Perspectives"

On the eve of the first anniversary of the Gaza war, IFI hosted a webinar titled “Gaza, One Year After: Regional Perspectives” on Tuesday, October 8, 2024. With the unprecedented war being waged by Israel ongoing with no clear or obvious end in sight, speakers presented the needed context that paved the way for this war and provided their analysis on how they envision the future of the region as a result. The discussion featured Mubadara Secretary General and PLO General Council member Mustafa Barghouti; former Jordanian Deputy PM and VP of Carnegie Endowment Marwan Muasher; former Lebanese Foreign Minister and Arab League Ambassador Nassif Hitti; and former Egyptian diplomat and USIP Senior Advisor Hesham Youssef. The discussion was moderated by IFI Director Joseph Bahout.

October 7 brought back the issue of Palestine to the forefront of Arab politics. Panelists analyzed several key aspects of the issue including the consequences of the war on the Palestinian cause, the position of the United States towards the conflict, as well as the role of Arab states and their different positions towards Palestine. Hitti criticized Arab states for their fragmented and ineffective responses, labeling it as a “diplomacy of schizophrenia.” Along the same lines, Muasher noted that "the US premises for peace are collapsing, since Biden lacks commitment to ending the Gaza war.” Meanwhile, Youssef stated that “the US lacks a coherent strategy to deal with Iran and the region; where Biden initially focused on the nuclear issue, but after that failed, it shifted to normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia."
 
Barghouti explained that “what is getting liquidated is not the Palestinian question, which is never as alive as today, but the Oslo process and the illusion that Washington could be a partner to mediate.” Panelists generally agreed that October 7 was a potential “game changer,” revealing the fragility of the status quo and the need for a fundamental rethinking of the approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the region’s dynamic. Muasher characterized October 7 an “eye-opener as the Arab-Israeli conflict cannot be ignored. Yet it is not a game changer.” Meanwhile, Youssef argued that “October 7 was indeed a game-changer as it presented Israel the chance to liquidate the Palestinian question.”
 
Undoubtedly, October 7 highlighted a divide in the perspectives on the future of the Palestinian question. At the same time, the growing escalation in Lebanon was hard to ignore, as Hitti predicted a prolonged war of attrition particularly in Lebanon, as the region struggles with instability. Thus, with continued rising tensions and no coherent U.S. strategy for the region, the future of the region remains troublingly uncertain.