Webinar: "An Incoming President: A New US Middle East Policy Amidst Turmoil?"

​In the immediate aftermath of the US elections, IFI held a webinar titled ”An Incoming President: A New US Middle East Policy Amidst Turmoil?” on November 8, 2024. The discussion reviewed the legacy of the Biden administration and what to expect from the upcoming Trump administration and its implications for the region. Speakers included: Randa Slim, Senior Fellow and Director, Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues program, Middle East Institute & Non-resident Fellow, SAIS Foreign Policy Institute; Tarek Masoud, Ford Foundation Professor of Democracy and Governance, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University; Steven A. Cook, ENI Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies, Council on Foreign Relations; moderated by IFI Director Joseph Bahout. 

With Trump’s win, speakers delved into how personal characteristics, transactional leadership style and regional priorities may influence the future of US foreign policy towards the region. Randa Slim noted the surprising scale of Trump’s victory and how this would empower him to push forward policies that align with the so-called MAGA agenda. However, she pointed out that Trump’s leadership is likely to remain transactional and driven by instinct, leaving little room for diplomatic shifts. She also noted a possibility to push for a Saudi-Israeli peace agreement if Republicans take control of the House of Representatives.

Steven A. Cook argued that Trump’s victory is a sign of continuity, rather than a change in US policy towards the Middle East. In Cook’s view, a Trump administration does not signify a change in the geopolitical landscape but would engage in a “maximum pressure” approach, particularly toward Iran. He doubted that a game-changer moment for the region would emerge with Trump, given the stable ties he maintains with key Arab allies, notably Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Meanwhile, Tarek Masoud offered a critical perspective of Trump’s victory, emphasizing that many would consider it as a failure of the Democratic Party to address the concerns of the American electorate, particularly those disillusioned by what they deem as a neglect of the working class. Masoud argued that US foreign policy under Trump would be defined by transaction, rather than ideology and diplomacy, focusing on deals and practical outcomes rather than lofty ideals like promoting human rights and democracy.

On the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, both Slim and Cook presume that the unwavering support for Netanyahu’s government would likely support the status quo, thus perpetuating the statelessness of Palestinians. Masoud believed that Trump’s policies could push Palestinians to accept whatever terms they’re offered, given the diminished leverage the cause has within the region. In what relates to Iran, Slim believes Trump may be looking to broker a deal, though these efforts would face challenges from Israel and other regional players. Cook, on other hand, questioned whether Trump could achieve a deal that leads him to a Noble Prize, keeping in mind the complexities of the Iranian nuclear issue.