"The Domestic and Regional Impact of the Turkish General Elections 2023"

IFI held a webinar titled “The Domestic and Regional Impact of the Turkish General Elections 2023” on May 31, which tackled the shifts and implications of Turkey’s latest presidential elections. The panel included Ahmet Uysal, Director of the Center of Middle Eastern Studies (ORSAM), and Sinem Adar, Associate at the Centre for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS) at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). The discussion was moderated by IFI Associate Fellow Yeghia Tashijan.

Given Turkey’s influence as a regional player, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s re-consolidation into power brings about questions on the impacts on the sociopolitical climate both within Turkey and the Middle East. The panelists began by breaking down Erdogan’s success during the first round of elections on May 14. Uysal explained that Erdogan managed to convince his people that the economy was not the most important focus amidst the growth of instability. Instead, the incumbent Turkish president highlighted military achievements and progress in foreign policy during his campaign, solidifying Turkish national pride and reiterating Turkish values of unity instead of placing the country as an economic stronghold. Adar added how Erdogan played a game of identity politics, merging nationalism and religion to create a community that is equipped with certain rights and privileges, making it hard for Turks not to support him. She noted that on top of displaying Turkey’s grandeur as a global power, Erdogan used fear politics, convincing his people to remain on his side to preserve Turkish family traditions and nationalist Islamist values.
 
The speakers assessed the implications of Erdogan’s win on Turkey; Uysal said that due to the opposition’s loss of the majority of seats in parliament, the Turkish government and the presidency were now closely aligned in values, which would diffuse any crises that may arise politically within the nation. In terms of the  future of the relationship between Turkey and the Kurds, both speakers believed there would be no significant change in the policy towards the Kurdistan Working Party (PKK). Erdogan’s reelection will also normalize relationships with the Arab world,  predicting a boost in trade, tourism, and investments. Uysal mentioned that Egypt, though previously hesitant, is now eager to strengthen ties with Ankara. He added that Saudi Arabia’s increasing independence shares an approach similar to that of Turkey’s, which may facilitate future cooperation between the two countries.
 
On the refugee crisis, Uysal stressed that the Syrian conflict is an international issue rather than solely a Turkish problem. He said that Erdogan intends to pursue “secure” plans that will return refugees safely back to Syria.
 
Adar concluded the discussion by mentioning the status of US-EU relations with Turkey, signaling that they will not be devoid of conflict. The US is not as enthusiastic about further strengthening Turkish military capabilities, and the backdrop of the Ukraine war, the geographical conflict in the Black Sea, as well as the climate change Green Deal and refugee crisis are all causes that build ruptures in the EU’s relationship with Turkey.
 
Watch the full recording of the discussion here.